Above average hurricane season predicted

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as well as other forecasters are predicting an above average Atlantic hurricane season for this year.

While NOAA is considered the best for hurricane predictions, it has not released its expectations.

However, Colorado State University has forecasted 17 named storms of which nine will become hurricanes,and four building into major hurricanes.

According to AccuWeather forecasters, they anticipate 13-18 named storms, 7-10 will become hurricanes, and 3-5 of those developing into major hurricanes (Cat 3 or higher).

Over a 30-year historical period, the average hurricanes per year is 7, while the average major storms is three.

There is a 51% chance of a major hurricane striking the United States compared to the historical average of 43%.

“Since 1950, 23% of all North Atlantic hurricanes have made landfall in the U.S.,” vice-president of Meteorology at Atmospheric G2, Todd Crawford wrote recently.

Based on data, the NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division calculated that an average of at least one hurricane made landfall in the United States each year from 1851 to 2022.

Crawford’s team said there are hints that the hurricane season could be larger because longrange computer models propose the pattern of winds that guide hurricanes could steer them more toward the coast.

However, the team does admit it is too early to tell whether those steering winds will be there when a hurricane forms.

Storm forecasters say the waters in the Gulf and Caribbean are warmer than average, but are cooler than they were this time last year.

Also if the water remains lukewarm or cooler during the peak season in the main development region of hurricanes, it could decrease hurricane development.

Another factor, that always plays a role in hurricane development is the affect of La Nina.

According to Weather. com, the phase of El Nino vs. La Nina is one of the strongest influences on hurricane activity.

Regarding hurricanes in the Atlantic region, La Nina has less wind shear, which do not tear down storm development and it creates more rising unstable air that is favorable for the building of storms.

El Nino on the other hand, produces more wind shear and sinking air in the areas where hurricanes grow into violent storms and as a result storms are less likely to build.

This year, NOAA forecasters have indicated neither a La Nina or El Nino causing a more neutral build in hurricanes. They predict August through October as the most likely time for hurricanes to take place.

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has the following list of names: Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, Fernand, Gabrielle, Humberto, Imelda, Jerry, Karen, Lorenzo, Melissa, Nestor, Olga, Pablo, Rebekah, Sebastien, Tanya, Van, and Wendy.