Lavaca County
Lavaca County neighbors
Drought
winter forecast

It can’t get much worse, right?

(Unless it involves weather predictions for approaching winter)

  • Our friends over in Luling got doubly blessed Saturday, for not only was it the centennial of discovering oil just outside of that town, there also came a rain.
    Our friends over in Luling got doubly blessed Saturday, for not only was it the centennial of discovering oil just outside of that town, there also came a rain.
  • A much appreciated fact for those gathered for the days celebration, because like in Lavaca County, rains have not been few and far between.
    A much appreciated fact for those gathered for the days celebration, because like in Lavaca County, rains have not been few and far between.
  • Plus it kept temperatures from climbing to the triple digits yet again this summer, making far more comfiortable for those who attended.
    Plus it kept temperatures from climbing to the triple digits yet again this summer, making far more comfiortable for those who attended.

    If you thought Mother Nature had been exceptionally cruel this summer, just wait until winter rolls around, one of the nation’s longest running weather forecasters reported over the weekend.

    It’ll be a “hot chocolate winter,” Farmers’ Almanac said in its 2022-23 winter weather forecast released Saturday, Aug. 6. That’s because “a cold December and a very cold January” will have readers “shaking, shivering and shoveling” and searching out their “extra flannels” for a good two thirds of the United States, including Texas, it reported

    That’s after much of the country suffered through one of the hottest summers on record, not to mention a terrible drought that forced all but 27 of Texas’ 254 counties to enact burning bans (as of Sunday, Aug. 7).

    The good news? February should see a return to normal. Mind you, the last two Februaries were some of the coldest Texas has seen in a half century, including 2021’s weeklong “Snowmagedon,” which arrived on Valentine’s Day and all nearly killed the state’s power grid.

    Although normally not released until month’s end, ahead of the Labor Day Weekend, editors said they advanced the forecast this year out of “growing concerns over the rising costs of heating oil.” 

    “Winter 2022-23 should be dominated by an active storm track in the eastern half of the country, running from the western Gulf of Mexico to the northeast,” Farmers Almanac said. “Areas south of the storm track in the southeast will see frequent storms bringing cold rains and wintry wet snows, sleet, ice and freezing rain as well as chilly temperatures.”

    Southern states will likely see “accumulating snow, especially in early January.”

    That’s because they say there “will be quite a few” significant weather disturbances across the nation, the first of which should move across the central plains the first week of January.

    “During this time, we see good potential for heavy snow that may reach as far south as Texas and Oklahoma, followed by a sweep of bitterly cold air,” Farmers’ Almanac said. Then, “we’ll raise another red flag (Jan. 16-23), for bouts of heavy rain and snow across the eastern two-thirds of the country followed by what might be one of the coldest outbreaks of arctic air we’ve seen in several years.”

    Those wondering how they can offer forecasts so far in advance, Farmers’ Almanac claims it has accurately published long-range weather forecasts since 1818. The key to the forecasts lies in a set of astronomical and mathematical rules developed by David Young, the Almanac’s first editor, which link sunspots and meteorology models to predict weather. Exactly how remains a closely guarded secret.