‘Near-normal hurricane season’ predicted this year
The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a division of the National Weather Service, predicts near-normal hurricane activity this season for the Atlantic/Gulf Coast region in 2023.
Not that there’s a single thing quite normal about a hurricane. Still, hurricane season officially started on Thursday, June 1. It will run through Nov. 20.
A breakdown of the hurricane expectations includes forecasters predicting a 40% chance of a near-normal season, while they predict a 30% chance of above-normal and 30% chance of below normal hurricane season
NOAA forecasters predict between 12-17 total named storms. Storms don’t get named until they have winds of 39 mph or higher.
Of those named storms, between five and nine could become hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or more, and between one to four major hurricanes that reach Category 3, 4 or 5 (a hurricane that has sustained winds of 111 mph or more).
NOAA says it has a 70% confidence rating in its predicted ranges this year.
“Thanks to the Commerce Department and NOAA’s critical investments this year in scientific and technological advancements in hurricane modeling, NOAA will be able to deliver even more accurate forecasts, helping ensure communities have the information they need to prepare for and respond to the destructive economic and ecological impacts of Atlantic hurricanes,” Secretary of Commerce Gina M. Raimondo said.
Hurricanes occur, especially those which form between the Lesser Antilles to the coast of western Africa, because the Atlantic Ocean is very warm as the hurricane season kicks off and a warmer ocean provides more energy for the development of tropical storms or hurricanes.
For the first time this decade, an El Nino weather pattern exists. It causes the warming of ocean water near the equator in the eastern and central Pacific Ocean.
This is important to hurricane development because the warming pool of water could impact weather patterns and lead to more shearing winds and sinking air over parts of the tropical Atlantic basin, thus reducing the chances of storm development
According to the Weather Channel, some computer model forecasts are suggesting the El Nino could become stronger by the heart of the hurricane season.
A change this year in the naming of storms has taken place with 21 unused names for this season. They include Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harold, Idalia, Jose, Katia, Lee, Margot, Nigel, Ophelia, Philippe, Rina, Sean, Tammy, Vince and Whitney
